Why Trump's Policy Strategy is to have None

Cianan Sheekey

Discussing Trump’s policy strategy and direction is a rather confusing affair. He appears to be thoroughly committed to optimisations in the federal government, ensuring it is as minimal in scale as possible. This has included the signing of an executive order to cull the US Department for Education, as well as utilising Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Government Efficiency for the “dismantling [of] government bureaucracy” and the elimination of “wasteful spending”. Minimising the state and the removal of regulatory red tape paints a neoliberal picture of Trump’s strategy – yet few neoliberals often incite antithetical global trade wars. 

On the surface, Trump appears to lack a coherent strategy, akin to an impulsive, indecisive, wholly ill-tempered child in the policy sweet shop. However, his approach is as coherent as we ought to have expected: his strategy is not to have one. 

Deciphering Donald Trump is no easy undertaking; he certainly possesses a confusing, enigmatic personality. One term most would agree can be accurately pinned to the 45th and 47th US President, however, would be that of ‘populist’. Ebbing and flowing where opportunity arises, Trump has moulded himself in a fashion which epitomises the contemporary political populist: avidly anti-establishment, fiercely patriotic, and with immense adeptness for being the unwavering epicentre of public consciousness. These traits have facilitated Trump's immense political success, with the former Apprentice host serving as the first Republican President since George W. Bush Jr., and the first President to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland – a testament to his political longevity. If populism has defined Trump’s success thus far, there is no reason we should expect that to change.

Populists. They view the political landscape differently. Not so much considering their aspirations of purposeful change, but instead, only valuing power and influence for its own sake. For the populist: the throne isn’t important because it allows one to help the people, with its importance instead coming from its power over the people. Hence, a sound base of policy aspirations with considered, meticulous detail rarely arises out of populist candidates. If Trump is populism epitomised, why are we expecting him to subvert this trend? 

 "It is not worth speculating what is next for the swinging pendulum of disjointed Trump policy, for it is without guiding principle."

The logic of Trump’s second-term policy has thus far been influenced not by a wise set of ideological principles, but instead, by populist impulses. This will continue; the coherence of Trump’s strategy will remain in its incoherence. Dabbling in neoliberal economic policy here, engaging in en masse protectionism there. Reinforcing strict law and order with the facilitation of the death penalty one day, then undermining it by pardoning Capitol riot insurrectionists the next. Trump’s strategy appears contradictory until you understand the lack of consistency is itself the strategy. Trump has the throne, and he can do whatever he feels, for he has the power over the people with which it comes. 

Whilst the White House engages in its waves of contradictory, disjointed rightist policy, there is another arguably more pessimistic element of Trump’s non-strategy to consider. Whilst it is undeniably rooted in illogical populism, it is also heavily influenced by Trump’s deep-rooted thirst for power. Trump is "using the classic elected authoritarian playbook" to undermine the US’ constitutional checks and balances to fundamentally violate the rule of law, suggested Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth College, who compared Trump to Hungary’s Viktor Orban. In expanding his Presidential power, he is brutally fulfilling the undermining power-hungry obsession which underpins all populist politicians, from Javier Milei to Nigel Farage. Frankly, we knew this was coming, we’ve seen it all from Trump before – from his (contested) incitement of the January 6th Capitol riots to the rejection of his several legal violations as merely the "persecution of a political opponent" – his patterns of behaviour highlight the lust for further power guiding his second Presidential term.

To surmise, Trump has a strategy. A non-strategy. Trump’s administration is operating to perform the erratic, incoherent populist platform on which the Republican ran, alongside fulfilling Trump’s personal political whims, primarily the advancement of his own executive power. It is not worth speculating what is next for the swinging pendulum of disjointed Trump policy, for it is without guiding principle. The only assured prediction for the rest of Trump’s second term is that of its inherent unpredictability. 

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