By Ethan Harvey
The Tories have got what they deserve – a humiliating defeat after 14 years of managed decline and continued consensus politics.
Despite numerous promises, from reducing immigration to cutting waiting lists, the Conservatives have failed to deliver. The NHS is in a state of chronic mismanagement; immigration is soaring, despite repeated pledges to reduce it in every Tory manifesto since 2010; and education is in shambles as the comprehensive system fails to yield positive outcomes.
After overseeing an unprecedented defeat in which Labour secured a historically large majority of 170 seats, Sunak is expected to retain power to allow the party to regroup before the formal procedures for another leadership contest transpire. But the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. What direction will the Conservatives take to rejuvenate future support for an establishment party that many now resent?
Those who fail to grasp the depth of the issue will advocate for the party to shift to the centre. They mistakenly believe that the downfall of the Conservative Party can be attributed to their alleged unwillingness to compromise or moderate their policies to appease the party's left. However, this argument fundamentally misreads the party’s raison d'etre – conservatism.
Instead of recognising the reality of Britain’s evolutionary Parliamentary system, where adversarial politics is essential for authentic debate and effective law-making, this argument assumes that ideology is a hindrance to the decision-making process and requires the kind of middle-of-the-road, bland centrist politics that has haunted Britain since the 1990s. In reality, this unbridled and delusional embrace of centrism has only fuelled and hastened the party’s humiliating defeat.
The Conservative Party's wholehearted adoption of New Labour’s bureaucratic, technocratic, and internationalist politics undoubtedly led to its colossal wipeout. This departure from traditional conservative values left many ex-Tory voters politically homeless. The Conservative Party must listen to the concerns of the 'little person ', who is stereotypically patriotic and against corporatism.
This is evident in the success of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which managed to secure a quarter of the 2019 Tory vote. The unprecedented breakthrough of the newly established and underfunded party marks a pivotal juncture for political representation in the UK, with many former Red Wall and blue Tory voters now parting ways with the two establishment parties. This is best surmised by George Galloway who described the Labour Party and the Conservatives as "two cheeks of the same backside". However, the disconnect between the Conservative Party and the 'little person' is precisely why returning to the centre will only further plunge the party into oblivion.
The success of Reform, which garnered 14.3% of the vote, highlighted a gap in the market in British politics. This gap has been opened by the Conservatives and the Labour Party merging ever ideologically closer, representing metropolitan interests over the patriotic desires of ordinary working people – those who voted for Britain to reaffirm control over unelected bureaucrats in Brussels and reclaim their sovereignty and national identity. Farage understood this and was able to partly dismantle the consensus politics that the First Past the Post (FPTP) system permeated.
However, with Reform winning just 5 seats despite receiving over 4 million votes, the challenges that FPTP presents smaller parties, like Reform, make it unlikely that the Conservative Party is going anywhere. For this reason, how the Conservatives decide to recuperate remains a critical question. It is a debate that cannot be had without respecting the psyche of the ex-Conservative, now Reform, voter.
The extent of the Conservatives’ defeat cannot be understated, with prominent MPs and ex-cabinet ministers, such as Jacob Rees Mogg, Liz Truss, and Grant Shapps, losing their seats. What comes next, however, will determine the future state of British politics and the existence of the Conservative Party in the years to come.
If, for example, the Tories proceed with their centrist ideology and elect a safe pair of hands, such as Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch, the latter described by Johnsonite Nadine Dorries as ‘Gove’s continuity candidate’, you can expect a rise in support for Reform and the subsequent collapse of what remains of the Conservative blob. Patriotic Brits have had enough of the belief system which gets nothing done, prioritises transnational interests, and hides behind layers upon layers of bureaucracy.
As Suella Braverman pointed out, uniting the right is the only way the Conservative Party can rebuild. Reports have revealed that Sunak held secret talks about doing just that with Reform before the run-up to the election, fearing his party would suffer a significant blow in light of Farage’s late return to British politics. But nothing was made of it, and the party suffered the consequences. Therefore, compromise should be on the table if the Conservatives intend to outlive their new rival.
"Appointing Suella Braverman as the next leader of the Conservative Party, the only prominent Tory MP willing to acknowledge the need to work with Reform, is the only way the party can survive."
The party should park aside its empathic desire for power and make a pact with Reform. This requires it to concede that neglecting conservative philosophy, the Scrutonian or Burkean kind, which puts nation, community, and family first, in preference for a vague third-way alternative, was a grave error.
The Conservative Party, in its current state of Sunakism, could not do business with Reform. Suppose it maintains this model under a different leader. In that case, it will struggle to engage disaffected ex-Tories because Labour holds a monopoly over centrist voters. The party should instead recognise the vacuum present on the centre-right of British politics. Returning to the party’s conservative origins by ending its commitment to the sloppy centrism of yesteryear is a fundamental stepping stone that needs to be crossed for any chances of dismantling Labour’s supermajority. This begins by recognising that a split centre-right vote is an obstacle to conservative political representation in Britain, assisting Labour’s seat share thanks to an electoral system that uses single-member constituencies.
To corroborate this point, it is necessary to revisit the 2015 General Election, where Reform’s predecessor, UKIP, received 12.6% of the vote and coerced the Tories into a referendum on Brexit in 2016. Juxtapose this to the 2019 General Election when Farage’s Brexit Party gave way to the Tories, redirecting hypothetical Brexit Party support, and handing Johnson an 80-seat majority. It is clear that a united right is a crucial ingredient in the recipe for Conservative Party fortune.
Therefore, a pact with Reform, such as an agreement that would pull Conservative candidates from red-wall seats or areas where support for Reform is particularly prevalent, should be a no-brainer if the Conservatives intend to remain a potent force in British politics. This must be done to prevent a repeat of the last election, in which the Tories split the vote in many seats where Reform could have won. Then, once elected, a coalition could be constructed to deliver a natural centre-right alternative to the technocratic hogwash that is Starmer’s attempt at a rehashed New Labour.
What the Conservatives must do to rebuild could not be clearer. Appointing Suella Braverman as the next leader of the Conservative Party, the only prominent Tory MP willing to acknowledge the need to work with Reform, is the only way the party can survive. Any attempt to moderate the Conservative Party will only draw more support to Reform, divide the right, and give Labour a larger mandate in future elections.
Image: Flickr
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