By Coby Saxby
The past weeks have seen a shift in geopolitics seldom seen outside a violent revolution or coup d’etat. The US, following a disastrous meeting between President Zelensky of Ukraine and President Trump (and Vice-President Vance) that ended in the Ukrainian delegation’s expulsion, has begun to accelerate its early efforts to achieve ‘peace’ in Ukraine – by suspending military aid and intelligence sharing. These moves, combined with the Trump administration’s pursuit of trade conflicts and territorial expansion against its former allies on the world stage, have left the West in a shock that it is only now beginning to awake from. The EU (and democratic Europe as a whole) now face the prospect of a future without the American security guarantees that have allowed the continent to breathe free since 1945. This situation is unsustainable, and European leadership has been forced to take action.
In the aftermath of the suspension of American aid to Ukraine, multiple meetings have occurred between the leaders of Europe’s major powers – the UK included – to coordinate a response to not just the issue of Ukrainian aid but the future of European defence itself. While negotiations on what is increasingly looking like a new global order continue, significant reforms have already been announced. In the field of maintaining the flow of aid to Ukraine, France and the UK both announced they had taken over the role of intelligence provider from the US after Trump cut Ukraine’s access to American intelligence – critical for providing targeting data for guided munitions as well as providing early warning for Russian bomber raids. Many nations announced accelerations in the flow of military and financial assistance – including (but not limited to) the UK’s decision to fast-track an initial wave of $1bn in funds taken from frozen Russian assets and Norway's committing to a doubling of its pledged aid (to a total of $7.8bn/yr).
These commitments, amongst others, have occurred concurrently with a wave of announcements across the major European powers to raise defence spending (the UK committing to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, France committing to over 3% of GDP, Germany’s CDU/CSU proposing a debt brake exemption on defence spending). France has even proposed taking over the role of the US as the continent’s ‘nuclear umbrella’ (the nation that will retaliate in the event of a nuclear strike on a non-nuclear NATO member). Combined with a Polish announcement on Friday 7th that the country was preparing for both the mandatory training of all adult males as military reservists and a potential independent nuclear weapons program, as well as the announcement from the EU Commission of a unified €800bn ‘ReArm Europe’ program to improve state access to defence funding, the messaging coming from throughout Europe is clear: the continent is now rearming, independent of the US and in collaboration with one another.
This chain of events has been met with mixed reactions. In British politics, the move towards increased militarisation and collaboration with the EU has had generally positive effects for Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer’s popularity (while still very low) has seen a sizable increase on the back of his handling of the crisis and support for defence spending rises (at the cost of cutting foreign aid) is at a majority of approx ~65% of British citizens. Across Europe, support for increased conscription, a pan-European military and continued support for Ukraine continues to rise, in tandem with a collective growth in distrust and concern directed at the US in the face of growing US isolationism and dialogue with Russia.
However, this should not be mistaken for universal support. At the supranational level, a bloc of EU states (primarily Hungary and Slovakia) continued to rail against continued support for Ukraine, resulting in a public spat where the EU chose to publish a joint text in support of Ukraine despite a Hungarian veto. Antonio Costa, president of the EU council, stated that Hungary was ‘isolated’ in the face of overwhelming support for the text. The incident has prompted Volt Europa (pan-EU party) MEPs to call for Hungary’s suspension in EU voting. With Viktor Orban and his populist Fidesz party enjoying strong ideological and diplomatic ties to Trump and the GOP, it is probable that these tensions may only be the beginning if EU-US relations continue to freeze over.
Of course, no nation is reacting more harshly to European rearmament than Russia itself. After three years of brutal attrition warfare, Russian losses are projected to be over 100,000 at a minimum, with countless thousands of vehicles lost or captured. Russian equipment and ammunition stockpiles run lower and lower with each passing day – increasing reliance on foreign aid from the DPRK, PRC and Iran. What was most likely a few weeks of relief in the Kremlin following the American openness to disengage from the conflict is quickly turning sour as it faces the prospect of an arms race and economic war that the battered Russian economy has little hope of winning. Even if the worst comes to pass and Russia achieves some form of victory in this war it faces a far greater challenge should it wish to continue its expansionism. With each passing day, it becomes harder and harder to see a world returned to ‘normal’ as it was at the start of this decade.
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