By Daniel Yates
A year on from Hamas’ attack on Israel, tensions in the Middle East are being combined with the emergence of multiple fronts and increasing physical disputes between nations. Israel is now in direct conflict with Hezbollah in the north, aerial bombardment from Iran and the continued war in Gaza. Iran, desperate to show its strength despite its ailing economy, struggles to present reasonable deterrence with missile attacks – to which Israel feels compelled to target its oil or nuclear facilities to the behest of allies. And although crippled by recent communication failures and the attacks on its headquarters, Hezbollah has built up a strong network of fighters in Lebanon’s south in the past 20 years. The rest of the world can merely watch the deteriorating situation after a year of failed diplomacy.
This most recent conflict has, so far, been called ‘a limited incursion’ by IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari. However, the impact on the Lebanese people has been far from minimal. A 5km exclusion zone on either side of the border was declared on the first day of the conflict, but an evacuation order now instructs people to flee to the north of the Awali River. Subsequently, an estimated 30% of Lebanon’s population is now displaced and all 900 shelters for displaced people are full. In addition, 30,000 Palestinian refugees residing in Lebanon have been forcibly moved.
Strikes have not been contained to this area. Beirut has been under intense bombardment from the Israeli forces, especially in the southern suburbs. At least five people were killed after the Israelis bombed a medical facility linked to Hezbollah in central Beirut. In one day, on the 5th October, at least 46 people were killed.
To date, Israeli forces have suffered an estimated eight fatalities. Six were killed in an ambush in the south of Lebanon, but two were killed in the Golan Heights by drones launched from Iraq, demonstrating the variety of fronts that this conflict is evolving.
"The rest of the world can merely watch the deteriorating situation after a year of failed diplomacy."
The United States has ostensibly provided a united front with Israel, but will likely seek to temper the Israeli response. An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is an absolute redline. The Biden administration has ‘discussed possible strikes’ on Iran’s oil production facilities. However, this too seems unlikely as the Presidential election looms. Before these developments, the backdrop for global oil seemed overall positive. The WSJ reported that the Saudi energy minister had warned that Brent crude prices could drop to $50 a barrel, likely benefiting the American macro outlook with industrial production and inflation (especially as OPEC’s dominance over the share of output has eased somewhat). Biden’s comments about these ‘discussions’ saw prices immediately jump 5% – and are now pushing $80. Therefore, despite there being no risk of the US backing away from Israel, it will carefully consider other strategic interests in the region.
This steadfast support is not guaranteed in Europe. France has reiterated the need for a political solution whilst also pledging to stop sending weapons that would be used in Gaza. This is unlikely to deter Netanyahu: his domestic popularity was struggling but the conflict in Lebanon polls highly among the Israeli people who see this as an opportunity to remove the threat to their north finally.
Yet, as this conflict evolves and grows, Israel’s military capacity will become more and more stretched. The war in Gaza remains, albeit eclipsed, whilst they are also conducting a ground invasion into Lebanon, and they will be surely planning a response to Iran’s missile attack.
This begs the question – what is the end goal here? Will this increase the probability of the hostages being returned? Will Gaza be rebuilt to reduce the likelihood of an insurgency? The endless pursuit of a military solution eclipses a political one – the only one possible to please the majority of stakeholders which can guarantee peace. If Iran continues to feel threatened, they themselves will likely increase the magnitude of their own attacks to save face as a powerful nation. It is unlikely that Israel can be safe in a region it threatens to engulf in war.
Image: Flickr
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