The Great Gambler: Ahmed Al-Sharaa and His Quest to Redefine Syria

By Meghana Pappu

Al-Sharaa with Hadja Lahbib, the European Commissioner for Equality

On March 7th, 2025, a Financial Times article made me come to a chilling realisation: I have (one) thing in common with Ahmed Al-Sharaa – a childhood connection with Saudi Arabia. But where mine was limited to trips along the causeway connecting Bahrain and Saudi, his was a very long and controversial past with the infamous terrorist organisation, Al-Qaeda.

Nearly two and a half decades since he first assumed power, Bashar Al-Assad’s oppressive regime finally fell, leaving Syria in a highly vulnerable position. With a transitional government occupying the massive power vacuum left by the deposed dictatorship, the country now faces numerous challenges: uniting its fractured society, halting regional violence, rebuilding its national economy, and most importantly – finding its place in the international community; leaving scholars wondering  – will Al-Sharaa’s government be able to tackle these issues and usher a new age of stability for Syria, or is this yet another autocrat seeking to consolidate power for himself?

Ahmed al‑Sharaa – once known as Abu Mohammed al‑Jolani during his years as a prominent figure within the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al‑Sham (HTS; The Levant Liberation Committee in English) – has sought to rebrand himself as a moderate statesman, abandoning the militant persona that once earned him a $10 million bounty from Western governments.

In a recent Reuters interview, he declared, “Syria is a state of law. The law will take its course on all,” – a promise to hold even his closest allies accountable for any injustices committed during the revolution. This statement, along with several diplomatic overtures and public addresses, is designed to reassure both Syrians and the international community that his vision for Syria is fundamentally different from that of the old regime.

If the history of the region has shown us anything, however, it is that critics are right to be sceptical, warning that Al-Sharaa’s extremist roots and centralised leadership style could very well foreshadow a return to authoritarianism. His choice and reliance on an undemocratic council made up of family members and ex-HTS commanders to handle key governmental functions raises eyebrows about whether his transformation is genuine, or is a mere rebranding exercise to appeal to the neo-liberal west.

Assad’s fall did not magically erase the tensions that have long plagued Syria’s borders; and while Sharaa’s government has claimed the mantle of reform, the region remains riddled with deep-seated conflicts and external rivalries. In recent months, violent clashes have erupted in areas with lingering sectarian divides and where remnants of pro‑Assad militias still operate. Sharaa has promised to rein in violence through a strict adherence to the rule of law, as his administration works to integrate various rebel factions into a unified national army – a move aimed at reducing internal fragmentation and preventing future outbreaks of sectarian violence.

The region’s complex web of interests – from Israeli military actions in the Golan Heights and southern incursions continue to unsettle local dynamics, to Kurdish forces, now bargaining for autonomy – means that any peace achieved on Syrian soil is likely to remain fragile. The international community, too, has urged restraint; the EU and US have signalled that they will consider easing sanctions only if the new government takes tangible steps toward national reconciliation and demilitarisation.

Perhaps the most formidable challenge facing Syria today is the monumental task of economic reconstruction; after more than a decade of conflict, Syria’s once-thriving economy has been decimated. Key industries, including oil exports and agriculture, have collapsed, and inflation has rendered the Syrian pound nearly worthless. For millions of Syrians, poverty is now a harsh daily reality.

Sharaa’s government is under immense pressure to restore essential services like electricity, water, and healthcare  – all of which have suffered from years of neglect and warfare. Early metrics suggest that there is cautious optimism on the streets of Damascus: prices have begun to drop, and the circulation of foreign currency is slowly resuming. Diplomatic efforts are underway to negotiate temporary sanctions relief, a move seen as critical to jumpstarting foreign investment and reviving a battered banking system; like the recent measures by the US Treasury to ease selected sanctions have provided a small but important boost to energy transactions and humanitarian aid.

Yet rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure will require more than temporary fixes. The new leadership must confront Syria’s staggering foreign debt – estimated in the tens of billions – and mobilise both domestic and international resources to reestablish a functioning state. Regional powers, notably Turkey and Qatar, have already signalled their willingness to help, particularly in energy and infrastructure projects; but without comprehensive and sustained reforms, the risk of economic collapse remains high. Restoring public trust in state institutions, ensuring transparency in economic reforms, and fostering inclusive growth will be essential if Syria is to avoid repeating the mistakes of past regimes.

At the heart of these challenges lies the question of trust. For many Syrians, the promise of a new dawn under Sharaa is a welcome change from decades of oppressive rule. His early efforts to foster reconciliation – such as offering amnesties to former regime soldiers and reaching out to various ethnic and religious groups – have sparked cautious hope. Yet, the memory of Assad’s brutal repression still looms large, and some worry that the new administration might revert to the old ways under the guise of stability.

The international community is equally divided. While some observers praise Sharaa’s pragmatic approach and his willingness to engage in dialogue with Western and regional partners, others remain wary of his extremist past and the heavy-handed tactics his inner circle has sometimes employed. Legal experts have defended his rise as “revolutionarily legitimate,” arguing that his authority is derived from the Syrian revolution itself rather than any single political ideology. Nonetheless, critics insist that only time, and concrete actions, will determine whether his transformation is real.

Ultimately, what remains to be seen is how Ahmed Al-Sharaa deals with his promise to restore law and order in a country torn by decades of brutal autocracy – a test only time can tell. For now, however, what’s more powerful is not what Al-Sharaa has done, but what he represents for both the international community and for Syrians. While it is certainly a new age for Syria, I can only hope that its troubled past, fractured communities, and external threats don’t resign the country to the same terrible fate it has suffered for generations.

Image: Wikimedia Commons