By Jack Keen
The 2020 Myanmar elections resulted in landslide victory for the National League for Democracy, NLD. Shortly after, the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military forces, staged a coup. The democratically elected government was deposed, and power was transferred to Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Four years later, the Tatmadaw has announced that elections are to be held. With the nation locked in a state of rebellion, many are wondering: are these elections a step toward democracy, or a ploy by the junta to restore control.
Historically Myanmar’s government has been dominated by the military. Following independence from British colonial rule in 1948, ‘The Union of Burma’ began as a parliamentary democracy. However, this ended in 1962 when General Ne Win led a military coup. Junta’s have controlled the nation until the Saffron Revolution in 2007, which pushed forward a new constitution in 2008, which transitioned to a partial democracy.
The 2008 constitution laid out that 25% of parliamentary seats were for unelected representatives of the Tatmadaw. The NLD had been taking steps to reduce this number. With the NLD winning a large majority in the recent elections, the military fears its power may diminish. This is the motive opponents to the Tatmadaw, claim is the motive behind the junta’s coup. However, the military assert that their seizure of power is justified, claiming the NLD had won through mass electoral fraud. An accusation the Tatmadaw has failed to prove.
As of 2025, Myanmar remains in turmoil, as the Tatmadaw remains in power.
Since seizing power, a communications blackout has been instituted, parliament has been blocked, and the military patrols the streets, as well as President Win Myint and other top government officials being detained. Shortly after the coup, Myanmar was plunged into a civil war. An on-going armed conflict between pro-democracy and the military broke out; over 2,600 groups are resisting. The civil war further intensified as the conflict evolved into combat between ethnic militias, such as the Kachin Independence Army, and the Tatmadaw.
The civil war has had massive humanitarian and economic effects. The UN estimated 3.3 million people have been displaced, and 5,350 civilian lives have been lost. The UN also documented atrocities such as the “ethnic cleansing” in the Rakhine state, as well widespread violence during the coup. A food crisis has also begun in Myanmar, as the cornerstone of the economy, agriculture, has been hit by civilian conscription. Myanmar is seeing economic decline from sanctions, and infrastructure damage, as well as a shift into an informal, black-market, economy. Nearly half of Myanmar's population has been pushed below the poverty line since the coup. As result, Myanmar has become a target for humanitarian aid.
As of 2025, Myanmar remains in turmoil, as the Tatmadaw remains in power. With the state falling into an increasingly desperate condition, some view the promise of elections as a way for the Tatmadaw to stabilise its power. By pledging elections, the pro-democratic forces might lose their resolve; however, this strategy could backfire if the election is perceived as illegitimate.
With communication restrictions, political suppression and military intimidation, many are questioning the legitimacy of any election organised by the Tatmadaw. Already, “opposition forces have either been barred from contesting or have refused to take part”. Furthermore, now that the junta has taken complete control, there are fears any party elected under the Tatmadaw will be a loyal puppet party for the military leadership. Many remain pessimistic and view the elections as a method for the military to quell resistance and sustain its leadership of the nation.
The promise of elections offers a glimmer of hope, but the ongoing civil war, and political suppression cast significant doubt on the legitimacy of any electoral result.
The international community has been largely critical of the military’s announcement of election. ASEAN, a trade bloc which Myanmar is a member of, has been critical. The ASEAN Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “election is not our priority. Our priority is to stop the violence.” The European Union has echoed this priority, stating they will continue humanitarian aid until a peaceful solution is met. Conversely, China has been supportive of the election, they have even provided the junta 1 billion yuan in aid for the election and other projects.
The situation in Myanmar remains tumultuous, the Tatmadaw continues to struggle with its grip on power, all the while the people suffer. The promise of elections offers a glimmer of hope, but the ongoing civil war, and political suppression cast significant doubt on the legitimacy of any electoral result. Ultimately, despite the promise of
elections, the future of democracy Myanmar is uncertain, and many remain sceptical.
Photograph: Getty Images
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