By Reuben Gilhooley
Mark Carney has been elected as the leader of the Canadian Liberal Party, following an official meeting with the Governor General, he will be invited by the King to form a government making him the Prime Minister of Canada. His Leadership bid began following the resignation of Justin Trudeau on the 6th of January, with increasing notability following an appearance on the American political satire show The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on the 15th of January. Carney ultimately beat Trudeau’s presumptive successor, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, conclusively by securing 83% of the vote.
[Carney] confirming his intent to run, to his staff, in a breakfast the morning after Trump won.
Carney’s leadership contenders were restricted by the Liberal Party convention that leadership alternate between Anglophone and Francophone Canadians, therefore ruling out the francophone Trade and External Affairs Ministers who both rose to prominence following the Trump tariff crisis. Carney has led the leadership polls consistently since mid-January and has conclusively been the best Liberal candidate for achieving votes from all voters, not just Liberal members.
Born in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories in 1965, the Harvard and Oxford graduate rose to prominence when, in 2008, he was made Governor of the Bank of Canada where his decision to rapidly cut interest rates in the Financial Crisis received widespread praise. As a result, Carney was invited to join the Conservatives as Minister of Finance in 2012, and was even speculated to be considering a leadership bid for the Liberals in 2013. He then rose to even greater international fame when he was appointed by David Cameron as Governor of the Bank of England, which he led during both the Scottish Independence and Brexit Referendums, where he spoke openly for staying in the Union and the EU. According to sources within the Carney campaign, he had been planning his campaign for the Premiership since he moved back with his family to the Capital, Ottawa, in 2020. He was then further inspired to run after a lunch in October with Tony Blair, who shares Carney’s market-oriented centre-left internationalist politics, and then again following Trump's victory, confirming his intent to run, to his staff, in a breakfast the morning after Trump won.
Like the UK, constitutionally the Canadian Prime Minister does not explicitly have to govern from the legislature, so long as they can pass treasury bills anyone is eligible to become Prime Minister. This is only a technicality however, with the last person in the UK to do so being Alec Douglas-Home, who governed for 20 days from neither house of parliament, between revoking his Peerage on the 23rd of October and his victory in a byelection on the 12th of November 1963. Douglas-Home is also notable for being the last Prime Minister to not have been elected to parliament as a member of the largest party, being elected on a Unionist ticket in Scotland, a party which took the Tory whip, and soon merged into the Conservatives, hence why the full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Ironically, the last Prime Minister of Canada to govern from neither the Commons nor the Senate was also a successor to a Trudeau, Pierre Trudeau having resigned his premiership in June 1984 in the face of certain defeat for the Liberals in the upcoming election should he have remained.
Poilievre may also be compared to Kemi Badenoch, for his floating in similar online circles of MAGA-adjacent fellow travellers.
Carney assumes office at an optimistic time for the liberals: Trump’s threats of annexation have caused a rallying to the flag by Canadians, leading to a collapse in the three year poll lead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives who are seen to use MAGA inspired rhetoric of “Canada First”, leading to Poilievre in particular being branded by some as “Canada’s DeSantis”, or “Maple MAGA”. Trump’s hostility has similarly impacted the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), which is described as the Canadian equivalent to Reform UK. Meanwhile, the Liberal’s left opposition, the New Democratic Party (NDP) have been falling in the polls since Trudeau resigned in mid-January as the Liberals regained credibility.
Poilievre may also be compared to Kemi Badenoch, for his floating in similar online circles of MAGA-adjacent fellow travellers. Like Badenoch, Poilievre has appeared on the Podcast of Canadian Political commentator and Psychologist Jordan Peterson in an episode optimistically titled “The next Prime Minister of Canada” Poilievre has railed against career politicians ever since he was elected five terms ago for two terms at a young age having held no previous job outside of politics. He continues to attack them on principle from his taxpayer funded mansion, in his chauffeur driven car, and no doubt will continue his principled stance well into his retirement thanks to his holding of the largest public pension in Canadian history.
Carney has made the choice to attack Poilievre in particular for his hypocrisy, perceived anti-patriotism in constantly attacking Canada and Canadian values, including multiculturalism which Poilievre, despite being a Francophone Canadian representing an Anglophone constituency, is convinced is impossible. After the backlash following the Trump tariffs, Carney has attacked Poilievre for a sudden rush of patriotism, echoing Dr Johnson with his attack that the last refuge of the scoundrel is naked, draped around the flag.
it is unclear to what extent Carney will govern differently than Trudeau
Unless Carney also calls an election immediately, he will likely seek byelection due to rising Liberal popularity making an embarrassing defeat unlikely, and also so there is not a line of attack by Poilievre’s Conservatives. It is expected for Carney to call an election soon after his premiership starts, although it is possible that he holds off, and allows Poilievre to flounder further with Carney hoping to show his competence in dealing with Trump over a number of months.
Carney’s term as Liberal leader is guaranteed to be successful to some extent, by saving the Liberal party from a nosedive into third or fourth place after the election, he has safeguarded the future of the Party. Beyond more hesitance to bring race, gender, and other “woke” issues into the debate, it is unclear to what extent Carney will govern differently than Trudeau. Carney, like Trudeau, champions blue Liberal sentiment of a balanced budget and market-based solutions involving deregulation and technology investment as the best way to fulfil Canada’s climate obligations, as well as keeping the Carbon tax, for which he has been branded by Poilievre "Carbon Tax Carney".
Carney will fight the next election by presenting himself as separate from Trudeau’s incumbent Liberals. He is expected to distance himself from Poilievre on matters of competence, private-sector experience, and his ability to negotiate effectively with the Trump administration. Poilievre, on the other hand, will frame Carney as a high-tax, low-common-sense continuation of the Trudeau premiership, arguing that the Liberals still bear responsibility for soaring house prices, a fentanyl crisis, particularly in British Colombia, border problems, and high taxes—issues that will persist even with a new leader.
Carney risks criticism from Trump and Poilievre for being too internationalist. Educated and living his life outside of Canada, Carney is open to criticism of being a “Davos man”, a reiteration of his predecessor as Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, an internationally educated, internationalist, academic, who came back to Canada to lead the Liberal Party under a technocratic style. Ignatieff was criticised for not being in touch enough with normal Canadians, typified by the attack line “Just Visiting”, illustrating the allegation of the fleeting nature of his patriotism. On the other hand, Carney demonstrates wealth, charisma and intellect, all traits appealing to Trump, it’s very difficult to tell if Trump will respond positively, or if he will feel threatened by the retaliation of a smart man with sharp elbows.
Carney, saving the Liberal party from relegation to the back benches, will guarantee a relatively successful stint as Prime Minister in the grand scheme of things. Should he call an election, it is possible that he may even improve the Liberal vote share on the 2019 and 2021 elections, allowing for Majority government due to the threat of annexation looming over the ballot paper while Poilievre’s Conservatives struggle to reorient themselves.
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