By Sam Ward
In 2019, Donald Trump declared the Islamic State (IS) caliphate “100%” destroyed. Yet, just this month, the head of MI5 gravely warned of the “worsening threat” from the terrorist group.
We are far from the days of 2014 when the world watched, horrified, as black-clad militants took vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, releasing gruesome propaganda videos in the process. However, while lacking the central authority and territory that made it so formidable, IS has heightened its activity across several fronts.
In Africa, especially the coup-stricken Sahel region, the group has exploited local conflicts and instability to pursue its violent insurgency. In the area of its former caliphate, the picture is more varied. While in Iraq, it has been suppressed with relative success, in Syria the situation has deteriorated, with IS being responsible for 397 attacks in the first six months of 2024 alone. Especially concerning are the vast detainment centres for those suspected of joining ISIS, and their families, which are operated by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These camps, most notably Al-Hol and Roj, currently hold around 11,500 men, 14,500 women and an astonishing 30,000 children, according to Amnesty International. With widespread reports of torture and the rampant spread of disease, they have become central to IS propaganda, seeing repeated jailbreak attempts. As many analysts and officials have warned, these conditions are ripe for an ongoing cycle of radicalisation, which risks instilling the group’s destructive ideology in a new generation.
Although the previous two fronts have remained away from the headlines, IS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has seized global attention, with its audacious and brutal attacks in recent years. The IS branch came to prominence when it carried out an airport bombing in Kabul during the 2021 US departure from Afghanistan. With 170 civilians killed, as well as 13 US soldiers, ISKP continued its insurgency against the Taliban before carrying out two further massive attacks in 2024, in Iran and Russia. The first, a bombing which targeted a commemoration ceremony for the assassinated general Qasem Soleimani, killed at least 95 people. The second saw four terrorists launch a coordinated attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, killing 145.
While Europe has not seen large-scale, coordinated terror attacks from IS in recent years, there is rising concern over the number of foiled plots involving self-radicalisation through online channels. These are harder to monitor, as not only do they tend to be ‘Lone Wolf’ or small-scale operations, but they worryingly involve younger individuals. Most notable has been the foiled ISKP-inspired attack in Vienna, which led to the cancellation of Taylor Swift concerts. The suspects in this case were all in their late teens, but reportedly, those in other plots have been even younger. This trend is partly due to the group’s sophisticated use of online technology. Even at its inception, unlike other terror groups, it frequently utilised social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter). Ten years on, it has updated its methods, employing TikTok, and even generative AI, to recruit and disseminate propaganda.
"As many analysts and officials have warned, these conditions are ripe for an ongoing cycle of radicalisation, which risks instilling the group's destructive ideology in a new generation."
Why, despite the group's obvious threat, has it flown under the radar? For many, the ISKP attack in Moscow was shocking, not simply due to its brutality, but because IS faded from mainstream political discourse following its ostensible defeat in 2019. The 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and fears of a possible war over Taiwan, apparently signalled a return to great power conflict. The 2023 Hamas attack on Israel starkly reminded the world that unrest in the Middle East could not easily be sidelined. And yet, the framing of Hamas and Hezbollah as Iranian proxies seemed to only further signal this geopolitical shift. Increasingly, international conflicts have been viewed as the West against an axis of rogue states: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. IS is an anomaly. It is not just separate from this anti-Western axis but has carried out its deadliest attacks against it.
This changing international system makes it all the more dangerous. Interstate hostilities not only distract security services but can actively undermine counter-terror efforts. Reports that Russia refused to heed US warnings about the Crocus City Hall attack, then blamed Ukraine, illustrate the devastating impact of this breakdown in trust. It should further be remembered that while the West played a considerable in the destruction of the caliphate, so did Russia and Iran; such combined efforts are unlikely to be replicated if the group resurges. Finally, while the world’s attention is centred on escalating clashes emanating from the Israel-Gaza war, it is precisely this environment in which IS will exploit widespread and understandable outrage at devastating Israeli military operations and Western complicity.
If the events of the last year have demonstrated anything, it is that the conditions which produce violent extremism and terror cannot be forgotten behind fences or dealt with through short-term tactical victories. They require strategic, difficult, and sometimes unpopular political decisions. Although the majority of those held in detainment camps are from Iraq and Syria, they contain people from 74 other countries, including 20 UK nationals. While discussions over repatriation have proved controversial, it is vital for the process of deradicalisation, rehabilitation and, in some cases, for justice to be delivered. The status quo is a deeply unsustainable security situation, leaving innocent children in limbo. More broadly, we must engage with the social and political foundations that have fuelled violent extremism in a proactive, empathetic, and long-term fashion. The world was shocked in 2023, as it was in 2014, as it was in 2001. We must avoid being shocked again.
Image: Free Malaysia Today
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