By Raphael Hammond
Between June 6 and 9, 373 million European citizens were given the opportunity to determine the composition of the EU Parliament.
Turnout was 51.05%, a slight rise of 0.4% on 2019’s figure. European elections are complicated, as they are influenced by the national contexts of member states, and are used by voters to send a message to national governments. As such, determining overarching narratives can be difficult. The mode of voting is also different to national elections. Member states must have a proportional system for EU elections – sometimes a single round of proportional voting, or in Ireland, single transferrable vote. Turnout varied by country all the way from just 21.35% in Croatia to 89.82% in Belgium.
The overall trend is clear: aside from a reversal in the Nordic countries, the results mark a shift towards the right in the parliament.
In terms of the number of seats, the big losers were the liberal group, Renew, down from 102 to 76, and the Greens, down from 71 to 53. Meanwhile, the ranks of the right-wing parties have swollen: the centre-right European People’s Party gained 12 seats to 188, whilst the European Conservatives and Reformists, an alliance of right and hard-right parties which includes Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Party, Brothers of Italy, gained 15 seats to 84. This makes them the 3rd largest grouping in the EU Parliament, overtaking Renew. Finally, far-right grouping, Identity and Democracy (ID), gained 8 seats to 57.
The other parties broadly remained as previously. The centre-left Socialists & Democrats group remains the 2nd largest, down from 139 seats to 136, and the Left group is up 9 on 46. Post-election, there is a significant contingent of 80 ‘Non-inscrits’ – members of the European Parliament who do not (yet) fit into the traditional party system. These include a contingent from Germany’s far-right AfD, who were expelled from ID after comments by its leader saying that “not all members of the SS were war criminals” were published in an Italian newspaper.
From the results, two paths forward emerged: a continued, albeit somewhat weakened, continuation of the current centrist EPP-S&D-Renew governing coalition, or a more right-leaning option of a Renew-EPP-ECR coalition, with a very small majority. Pre-election, many S&D candidates ruled out working with the ECR or ID, and, after the election, Renew President Valerie Hayer joined them, stating this was a precondition of collaboration with the EPP. The second option is also less likely as Macron and Meloni’s relations have been tumultuous of late. The Greens, who were influential in the previous session, do not have the numbers to viably influence a governing coalition. Currently, the EPP-ECR-ID coalition option would fall short of a majority, hard-right control of the EU Parliament and Commission has been averted… for now. However, the functioning of the EU Parliament is peculiar in that many bills pass on their own specific majorities, which can be based on the merits of individual elements of legislation. It is certain that the voice of the right will be strengthened in the upcoming parliamentary session, given the increased share of the seats they now hold.
Now that the results are in, the backroom deals can begin. The appointment process for EU commissioners is a grey area – the object of frantic discussion and horse-trading by member states’ leaders. Whatever they come up with, however, does need to secure a majority in the EU Parliament. So far, it seems that this process will deliver similar results to the previous term, albeit shifted somewhat to the right. Right-wing and centre-right leaders will be expecting to reap the rewards of their electoral performance and increase their sway in the EU’s complex yet influential decision-making process. However, the top jobs, as in the last term, will go to the EPP, S&D, and Renew, with EPP candidate Ursula Von Der Leyen likely keeping her job as Commission President.
So far, it seems that on the EU level, the far-right has been kept at bay: Roberta Metsaola, European Parliament President, said that “the constructive, pro-European centre has held”. However, this spin ignores the elephant in the room: the march of the nationalist parties continues broadly unabated. They now take over a quarter of the seats, and their voters will be irked by the continuity with the previous governing coalition, particularly in top leadership roles, even though the right’s increased presence will be felt as legislation is passed.
Critically, the results have caused a major upset in France. The far-right Rassemblement National dominated in France, covering the electoral map in an appropriately sewage-coloured shade of brown. They achieved a result of 31.37%, their highest ever result, more than 15 points ahead of Macron’s party on 14.6%, closely tailed by the centre-left group Reveiller L’Europe on 13.83%.
Faced with this result, Macron sought to gain the upper hand, dissolving France’s legislature, that same evening. The country has seen increasing authoritarianism and austerity from the president: in this environment, can the mainstream prevail, or will we see the first far-right French regime since Vichy?
The stakes could not be higher – the far right is at the gates; the traditional right is fracturing, and the left has taken over as the largest opposition to the RN ahead of Macron’s party – all while frustration from the electorate is commonplace. It seems the EU will continue with business as usual for the next 5 years – but the question of whether the centre will hold much longer on the EU level may soon be answered in France.
Image: Flickr
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