By Tom Lowe
President Joe Biden’s position as the presumptive Democratic nominee for the upcoming US General Election looked increasingly untenable ever since his horrendous debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27th. Biden’s attempts to appear strong post-debate were then heavily marred by a catalog of further gaffes in which the President called out Vladimir Putin’s name when introducing Volodymyr Zelensky and confused his own Vice President, Kamala Harris, with his rival Trump.
Despite consistent reassurances from his team that Biden would stay in the race as the Democratic nominee, it was clear that something had to give. On the 21st July, Biden released a statement signaling his intention to suspend his re-election campaign, throwing his endorsement and support behind VP Harris to run in his stead shortly afterwards. In a matter of minutes, the 2024 US Election had been turned on its head, with Biden being the first sitting President since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 to withdraw from a campaign.
The decision for Biden to step down was met with much enthusiasm and respect from those within the Democratic Party. Flailing in the polls, and unlikely to experience a marked improvement from his performances in press conferences and the debate, Biden has been perceived by many as putting personal ambition aside in the hopes of securing a Democratic victory.
A strong bulwark is needed to prevent the uncertainty, and indeed, chaos that a second Trump presidency would bring to the US and the wider world, and it is evident that Biden could no longer act as this. The goodwill surrounding Biden’s 2020 election has all but vanished, with swing states looking ever likely to vote Republican. Enter Vice President Kamala Devi Harris.
Being the VP, Harris’s role has been primarily behind-the-scenes, meaning that her work has not necessarily been at the public forefront of the past three and a half years of Biden’s administration. Despite this lack of limelight, Harris has gained a modicum of online popularity due to her iconic laugh and occasional philosophical one-liners such as: ‘You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context in all of which you live and what came before you.’.
"It is crucial that Harris’ campaign remains unburdened by her time in the White House so far, and instead provides a meaningful message of hope, change, and progress."
Ironically, it is one of these one-liners that may come to define Harris’ campaign, as she often quotes ‘What can be, unburdened by what has been’. Harris, despite a largely underwhelming tenure as Biden’s second-in-command, is now one election night away from making history as the first female and Asian-American President. It is crucial that Harris’ campaign remains unburdened by her time in the White House so far, and instead provides a meaningful message of hope, change, and progress.
Snap national polling suggests that Harris has inherited Biden’s 3 to 8 point gap behind Trump, a figure that has remained consistent since the June 27th debate. Trump’s recent brush with assassination has catalyzed his campaign further, fuelling his portrayal as a strong leader in comparison to the relatively diluted perceptions of both Harris and Biden. It is also likely that, as was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016, Harris will become the target of misogynistic attacks from Trump, who claimed that Clinton was only so successful because she played the ‘woman card’.
Harris’ path to the Oval Office is a difficult one. Statewide polling sees Trump ahead in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which were instrumental in his 2016 election victory. To stand a chance at winning over the median voter, whilst also sustaining the core votes of progressives, Harris has a fine line to tread from now until November.
The primary way in which Harris is likely to win the support of these states is by using her previous experience as a tough-on-crime Attorney General of California. The self-proclaimed ‘top cop’ of The Golden State, Harris has often faced progressive criticism for her harsh penalties for marijuana users, but it is this very criticism that may propel her to popularity in the face of Trump, who is himself a convicted felon.
Harris, like every candidate before her, will have to play politics if she wants to win the White House. Standing on her record of publicly supporting Roe vs Wade for progressives whilst cracking down on crime for moderates is certainly easier said than done. However, there is still a long way to go until the US goes to the polls on the 5th of November, and if the events of the past few weeks, from the debate fiasco, to Trump’s near-miss, to Biden stepping down, can prove anything, its that this election is proving to be one of the most unpredictable in recent American history.
Image: Flickr
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