By Cianan Sheekey
Amesbury leaves Chester Crown Court following his sentencing, to ten weeks in prison suspended for two years. Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA
Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby, has announced he will resign his seat after
receiving a suspended prison sentence for repeatedly punching a constituent. Amesbury, who “rained five or six punches” over elector Paul Fellow, did so over a dispute over a bridge closure in the local town - a reasonable response in only the heavily intoxicated mind of the now disgraced politician. Whilst Amesbury’s political career is most assuredly over with his conviction for common assault deservedly looming over his head, his outgoing has triggered a key by-election - the first of Starmer’s premiership. Runcorn and Helsby will be the unlikely ring for the first bout between Labour and Reform since the former’s return to government.
The dynamics of the Runcorn Rumble are all askew. Whilst the seat was a dominant Labour victory in the 2024 General Election, Reform placed an electorally respectable second. Still, overturning Labour’s 52.9% vote share in the constituency remains a formidable challenge for Farage’s group of in-fighting populists. The recent ousting of Rupert Lowe and referral to the police by his own party has, by Farage’s own admission, “dented” Reform’s “sense of unity”, no doubt harming their perceived electability. Yet, Starmer can hardly boast an unblemished record, with the PM only holding an approval rating of 37% according to the latest POLITICO poll. This by-election really is a boxing match, and the fighters can’t help but keep landing potentially decisive blows.
The electorate of Runcorn and Helsby ought to be very careful. Given the situation, with the constituency’s MP quite literally starting this fight with his own bare hands, it might be tempting to stand against the establishment; to dabble in the realm of populism. We must, however, remember that Reform UK is a collection of opportunistic, attention-seeking individuals, who seek influence and power for the betterment of their interests and those of their allies. Rooted amongst the technocratic, the xenophobic, and the elitist, misgivings aimed at the current administration should not cloud one’s judgement of whom, by rebelling against Labour, you would be inadvertently endorsing.
Power often shifts under the effect of momentum, an almighty force in political physics. A single domino can set off a chain reaction, and giving Reform an early victory could enhance ambitions beyond far beyond Runcorn. Whilst the belief Reform can’t really fight Labour may well deter several voters from their anti-establishment allure come the next General Election, what happens if Reform pulls off an upset? If Labour is caught off guard and dealt a knockout blow, the Reform threat becomes less theoretical and ever more tangible. Every seat they can grasp is another subversion of the establishment, another victory for the populist scourge. The best way for the Labour Party to withstand the force of political physics is simple: don’t let the next domino fall.
So, what should Labour do? Firstly, it needs to strike off Amesbury’s parliamentary pay. He has been found guilty of a crime committed against a constituent and has no right to claim any taxpayers’ money. This move will no doubt be popular with the people of Runcorn, and presents Starmer as strong against ill-behaved Parliamentarians, at no political cost.
Second, Labour needs to seize the narrative. Regardless of your perspective on the polarising Nigel Farage, he undoubtedly has a talent for directing and controlling the agenda of public discussion. He is always somehow bending and twisting the narrative to make himself appear as a shining beacon of reason or, if circumstances insist, a victim of Britain’s supposedly ‘tainted institutions’. The Starmer ministry needs to ensure the electorate is aware of its accomplishments to counter this directed discourse. Boast of the bolstering of national security, the improvement to NHS appointment accessibility, and the development of long-neglected key infrastructure, whilst simultaneously attacking the weaknesses of Reform policy, especially their recent flirtation with NHS privatisation - a shameful neoliberal assault on a cherished British institution. When voters can see the light, they are less likely to walk into the more obviously apparent dark.
Putting in work to defend Runcorn and Helsby is to do more than defend one seat; it prevents the strengthening of Reform’s momentum for the next election, or even the next by-election if one were to arise. Considering Labour’s 2024 landslide election victory was built on the shaky foundations of First-Past-The-Post, the same system which limited Reform to five seats despite winning over 4.1 million votes, every joule of momentum needs to be protected. To reiterate: don’t let the next domino fall.
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